Why Is Everyone Hating on LeBron?

In looking at the comments posted on the new LeBron Nike ad, I see that most people have negative things to say.  I posted about LeBron a couple posts ago, but I have more to say about it.

I am getting to the point of my schooling where I am now thinking about my different career options.  I want so much to make a good decision.  As I go throughout the process of exploring careers and ultimately finding a job, I know that ultimately I need to do what's best for me and my newly-formed family.  If I wanted to do something high paying and low stress but that takes me away from the work I have been doing for the past few years, I am not going to feel ashamed about leaving that to "sell out."  If I made a huge life decision based on not wanting to "let people down" by choosing a career that they think I should choose, then I am really only letting myself down.

I see a parallel with this experience and that of famous athlete Lebron James.  He simply picked the team where he thought he would be best off.  He did let a lot of people down in Cleveland, but if he would have stayed there he would have let himself down.  For the Cleveland fans: it's only sports; it's a for fun thing; it's not as if LeBron committed a crime or some immoral act; it doesn't matter that much.  For LeBron: it's his job for the next few years; it's where his family is going to live; it matters quite a bit.

As far as being Dwayne Wade's sidekick, I watched the game with the Celtics the other night and it looked more like Dwayne Wade was Lebron's sidekick in that one.

How Much Is Home-Court Advantage Worth in the Playoffs?

In honor of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, which starts Thursday night, here is a post about home court advantage.  The Lakers have home court advantage over the Celtics.

Here is a scholarly article on home advantage.  It its introduction it notes that in the NBA, about 61% of the time the home team wins.  The article does argue that due to the construction of the league schedule this number is inflated because the visiting team typically has had less time between games than the home team.  For sake of argument we will assume home-court advantage is 61%.

Consider a theoretical seven-game series between two evenly-matched teams.  One team has home-court advantage, meaning they will have four out of the possible seven games in their home arena.  We therefore assume that the home team has a 61% chance of winning any given game.  What is the probability of the team with home-court advantage winning?  The probability is about 53.5%.  This implies that home-court advantage increases the probability of winning by about 3.5%.

As noted here and here, the Celtics focused their regular season on preparing for the playoffs and worried less about accumulating wins.  In this case, it appears that the trade-off was worth it as they did make the finals even without home-court advantage for the last two rounds.

In the NHL the home team wins approximately 55% of the time.  In a seven-game series between two evenly-matched teams, the home team will win with a probability of 51.6%.  Home-ice in the NHL is therefore worth about a 1.6% percent increase in winning.

Lowest Seeds to Ever Make the NBA Finals

Here is a list of the lowest seeds to ever make the NBA Finals:

• 2010 Boston Celtics 4E
• 2006 Dallas Mavericks 4W (Lost 4-2 to Miami)
• 1999 New York Knicks 8E (Lost 4-1 to San Antonio)
• 1995 Houston Rockets 6W (Won 4-0 over Orlando)
• 1981 Houston Rockets 6W (Lost 4-2 to Boston)
• 1978 Seattle Supersonics 4W (Lost 4-3 to Washington)
• 1969 Boston Celtics 4E (Won 4-3 over the LA Lakers)

Here are some notes on those teams.

• 2010: The Celtics started the season 23-5 and finished the season 27-27.  They were also the 2008 NBA champions.  As I blogged earlier, it appears that they rested their old and injured players in the regular season in order to maximize their potential in the playoffs.  Here is a recent article which confirms my point.
• 2006: Due to a screwy rule, Dallas was given the 4th seed despite having a 60-22 record (which was the 2nd best in the west and 3rd best overall).  They should have won too if it wasn't for some shady officiating.
• 1999: This season was played after a lockout shortened the season to 50 games.  It was the kind of year for an 8-seed to slide its way into the finals.
• 1995: The Rockets were the defending champions.
• 1981: On the surface this seems random.  The Rockets went 40-42.  They beat the defending champion Lakers 2-1, then the Spurs 4-3, then in the conference finals beat the 40-42 Kansas City Kings.  Within two years they traded Moses Malone to Philadelphia and then finished the 1982-83 season with the worst record in the league.
• 1978: Portland was by far the best team until Bill Walton was injured late in the season.  Seattle returned to the finals in 1979 and won it.
• 1969: Not only was Boston the defending champion, including this year, they had won 11 of the past 13 finals.

My point is that in the NBA playoff system, it is somewhat unlikely for a poor team to win.  In keeping with my original point, the regular season doesn't matter when a good team knows that it can reserve its energy for the playoffs.

By contrast, here are the lowest-seeded Stanley Cup finalists of the past 10 years.

• 2010 Philadelphia Flyers 7E
• 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins 4E (Won 4-3 over Detroit)
• 2007 Ottawa Senators 4E (Lost 4-1 to Anaheim)
• 2006 Edmonton Oilers 8W (Lost 4-3 to Carolina)
• 2004 Calgary Flames 6W (Lost 4-3 to Tampa Bay)
• 2003 Anaheim Mighty Ducks 7W (Lost 4-3 to New Jersey)
• 2000 New Jersey Devils  4E (Won 4-2 over Dallas)

Boston 94, Orlando 71

The Boston Celtics won tonight to go ahead 3-0 in their playoff series.  The Celtics struggled the second half of the regular season, only winning about 50% of their games.  Orlando, on the other hand, had the second-best regular season record in the NBA.  Cleveland, the team Boston beat in the last round, had the best regular season record in the NBA.

The NBA tournament system works as follows.  The 30 teams each play a total of 82 games across the country over a period of 6 months.  The top 8 western teams and the top 8 eastern teams then enter a single-elimination tournament--that is, they go to the playoffs.  The teams are paired off and play a best-of-seven series.  The teams who had better regular-season records are awarded with weaker opponents and home-court advantage--that is, if a seven game series lasts a full seven games, four of the seven will be played on the home court of the better team. The winners advance.  The champion of the playoffs is declared that year's champion.

If a team's only major goal is to win the championship, then it appears that the optimal strategy may not be to try as hard as possible to win regular-season games.  The NBA season can be hard on a player if they have to play a lot in each of their team's games.  A good strategy would be to limit the amount of time that player would play, even if their team might perform better with them playing longer.  Additionally, a younger player may be given more playing time than their performance merits in order to give them more experience.  If all that matters is the playoffs, a good team would be well-served to focus on making their team as strong as possible and just try to win the playoffs.  The regular season seems to mostly serve to produce a profit.

A more satisfying system is the system most worldwide professional soccer leagues use.  A soccer league typically has a fixed number of games in which the teams play each other.  The team who does the best wins.  There isn't the high-stakes excitement of a playoff, but on the other hand (1) it is much more likely that the best team wins and (2) each game actually matters.